Amsterdam’s research and statistics office, Onderzoek en Statistiek (O&S), has published “Een stad voor iedereen?” (“A city for everyone?”), a report on the causes and effects of demographic change in the city. Its base forecast is that Amsterdam will keep growing to about 1.08 million residents by 2050. The report, presented at the O&S symposium on 8 October 2026 and received by alderman Scholtes, finds that demographic change is creating tensions in the housing market, the care system and the economy.

The forecast and its uncertainties

The base forecast rests on the most likely development of, among other things, the average number of children, international migration and housing construction in Amsterdam. Looking further ahead, O&S expects the municipality to have 1.12 million residents in 2055. Some parts of the forecast are fairly certain: the population will age in any case. Births in the city have fallen in recent years, and it is an open question whether that decline will continue. Migration from abroad depends on global events and on economic growth that creates jobs in the city. A high inflow from abroad often goes together with a high outflow of Amsterdammers to other parts of the Netherlands.

Two scenarios

Following the State Commission on Demographic Developments 2050, O&S explored two extreme variants of its base forecast:

  • Economic growth engine: the city focuses on attracting international knowledge workers, bringing strong economic growth but also more housing pressure and rising inequality.
  • Family-friendly city: more room for families to stay, partly because more spacious and affordable homes are built; this often goes with lower economic growth.

The report says neither scenario is necessarily desirable for the city. A city for everyone, it concludes, requires a balance between the two.

Three conclusions

First, the number of families in the city is now falling in absolute terms, as is the number of births, and pupil numbers in primary and secondary education are dropping. Second, the housing stock has grown, but largely with small and relatively expensive homes. Third, over the next 25 years the number of residents aged 65 and over will rise sharply, and the number over 85 is growing fast. Pressure on services under the Social Support Act (Wmo) is expected to increase, on top of existing staff shortages in care.

What the city can influence

According to the report, the municipality can hardly steer births, deaths and migration. Through housing construction, economic course, labour market policy and the planning of facilities, it can protect accessibility and quality of life for current and future residents. At the symposium, these challenges were discussed in a panel with alderman Scholtes, urban planner and architect Wouter Veldhuis, and Souhail Chaghouani, director of the care organisation Amsta.